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What is the significance of the first six games of a football season?

The 2019/20 Premier League campaign is four games old, but conclusions are already being drawn. It is still early days, of course, but it is difficult to envisage anyone other than Liverpool or Manchester City winning the title. Manchester United and Chelsea look off the pace in the race for the top four, while Norwich City, Newcastle United, Aston Villa and Watford could be set for a season of struggle.

However, whenever a pundit makes such predictions at this stage of the season, they emphasise that there is still a long way to go. That is true, of course, but each game – whether it takes place in week one or week 38 – is worth the same amount of points, even though matches towards the end of the campaign are much more likely to be labelled “must-win” or “vital”. So, does it matter when clubs win their points? And just how important are the first six games of the season?

05.09.2019 Read More >
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Football's draw market: How to win from ties

Football is a relatively low-scoring sport, which means draws are far more common than in the likes of rugby and American football. It is certainly not uncommon for the scores to finish level in the world’s most popular game: in the five Premier League seasons between 2013 and 2018, the points were shared in around a quarter of all matches. Second-tier Stoke City even managed 11 ties in their final 18 league games last season.

01.08.2019 Read More >
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Football betting strategies

A punter will sometimes need a bit of direction, a bit of guidance on their learning curve in betting. Football betting strategies for example can help punters gain a stronger foothold in the area and that’s not an admittance that you perhaps don’t know what you are doing, it is just a great way to learn some subtle nuances from other punters to help you grow your own path in football betting. There are so many aspects of football betting that there is nothing wrong with taking a look at what other punters have found successful for them.

10.07.2019 Read More >
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Sports betting explained: How to bet on sports

There are countless people on the planet that make a living from real estate. You may know someone who works in that field, and if you do not you have probably seen television programmes about them. These individuals earn income by “flipping a house”, a concept which has similarities to sports betting.

10.07.2019 Read More >
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Understanding and managing your risks of ruin

Betting on sports is a complicated discipline. Even the most studious bettors must rely on significant portions of good fortune to be successful. The reason sport is so popular is because of the randomness at the heart of it, and that makes it difficult to make money from your predictions. There are, however, several things you can do to boost your chances of making a profit – and one of those is by employing data.

10.07.2019 Read More >
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How to bet on newly promoted teams

The favourite-longshot bias has a major effect on sports betting, but we tend to view the phenomenon through the prism of the bettor, rather than the bookmaker. This article serves as an attempt to readdress that balance and provide a fresh perspective on something every bettor should be aware of.

The favourite-long shot bias refers to when bettors tend to overvalue longshot selections and undervalue favourites. In simple terms, this is a form of bettor irrationality – and bookmakers, as they always do, react to it. In this case, they shorten their odds as a response to this common behaviour. And that, of course, is bad news for those looking to maximise their returns.

10.07.2019 Read More >
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Are you a serious or casual bettor?

There are countless people all across the globe who participate in sports betting. Many of these people do so for fun – it can add an element of entertainment to the process of following your favourite team, and it can also be an enjoyable activity to share among a group of friends. Others participate in sports betting because they want to earn a living from the endeavour; these people dedicate a large chunk of their time to research as they search for exploitable edges and keep up to date with important factors such as form and injuries.

10.07.2019 Read More >
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The relationship between sports betting and economic bubbles

Irrationality in the market tends to benefit a small pool of investors, as seen in subprime mortgage bubbles. Believe it or not, there are similarities between this and the world of sports betting, where the prevention of information signalling can also cause market inefficiency.

When an asset is overvalued – that is, a higher value is attached to it than it is actually worth – the result is a bubble. In sports betting, a value bet is defined as one in which the probability of an outcome occurring is more likely than what the odds on it happening infer.

10.07.2019 Read More >
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Does the hot-hand phenomenon exist in sports betting!

“Hot hand” is a word which comes from basketball. It refers to a player who is in good form, who is said to have hot hands. According to perceived wisdom, this player is more likely to be successful with a shot if his previous attempts were successful.

What does this have to do with sports betting, we hear you cry? Well, quite a lot, actually: there is a belief among some that a bettor who has been successful previously has a better chance of replicating that success in the future.

10.07.2019 Read More >